I came across this paper titled “Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions” by J Scot Armstrong (2001) a couple of years ago and thought it was worth sharing here. Armstrong’s paper discusses the effectiveness of using role-playing simulations to forecast decisions in various real-world scenarios. It presents five situations where interactions between two parties significantly impact the outcomes. These include labor negotiations, lobbying efforts, product design changes, legal defense strategies, and contract negotiations. The paper argues that using role-playing simulations can help accurately forecasting decisions and their consequences in these complex, interaction focused situations.
It highlights the importance of accurately forecasting the decisions of other parties involved, citing historical examples where inaccurate predictions led to detrimental outcomes. One such example was the failed stock sale of the British-owned Falkland Islands Company to an Argentine consortium in 1975, which ultimately led to the Falkland’s war. Accurate forecasting of each other’s decisions might have prevented the conflict, instead resulting in mutual benefits. The author suggests that role-playing simulations can help improve decision-making accuracy by simulating interactions between parties and predicting their responses to different scenarios.
In many ways this is similar to the concept of Red Teaming. This involves running a simulation with a real opposition force (red team) to test a companies strategies and contingencies. I wrote about Red Teaming and roleplaying games in a previous article here.
Running a Roleplaying Simulation
The paper outlines the basic elements of creating these role-playing simulations. Including realistic casting, clear role instructions, accurate situation descriptions, active participation, and thorough coding of results. It also emphasizes the need for multiple sessions with different scenarios to obtain reliable predictions.
- realistic casting: where possible roles should be played by people who are similar to those they represent.
- clear role instructions: the role players should read and understand their roles before reading the situation details. Players should be asked to improvise but to remain firmly in their role.
- accurate situation descriptions: describe the situation as clearly as possible, and provide realistic surroundings where possible.
- active participation: Ask players to act out their responses and try to keep their decision making as realistic as possible.
- coding of results: all players should write their view of their decisions
When to Run a Forecasting Simulation
Of course using roleplaying simulations for forecasting does not work for every situation. The paper suggests ideal conditions include: involving conflicts, large changes, or interactions between a few parties. Most important is the need for faction interactions to have a large influence on the outcome.
Is Roleplaying as a Forecasting Tool A Valid Method?
Finally, the paper provides evidence on the value of role-playing simulations, including studies demonstrating their face validity, predictive validity in contrived situations, and effectiveness in predicting decisions in actual situations. It concludes that role-playing simulations offer a valuable method for forecasting decisions and improving decision-making processes in complex scenarios.
Final Thoughts
This paper was an interesting read and I could immediately draw parallels with Red Teaming and Megagames in the way the suggested simulations would work. But are companies and other organizations using this methodology? Unfortunately, that is not made clear in the paper. Though we do know that the military do use roleplaying in some of their wargames.
Given the suggested ideal situations and the cost associated with running a roleplaying forecast simulation implies that this methodology would only really be viable for larger organizations. For example, companies like Airbus, Richemont, and HSBC have participated in crisis simulation exercises that involve role-playing to improve decision-making under stress. In fact there is an existing industry providing such services.
Unfortunately, it seems clear that this sort of activity would be of limited use for the small to medium enterprise.
Nonetheless, an interesting journey into another avenue of roleplaying and its use within an organizational setting. Has your company used roleplaying as a forecasting tool?